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Sunday, April 27, 2008

My dear Center Party and the Ethanol discussion

Today the official spokesman for my own Party - Claes Vasterteg at www.centerpartiet.se - defends the Ethanol industry, as he in the same time seems to support the criticism of Ethanol production and it's consequences. "Anyone fueling their car with Ethanol in Sweden does a good thing", and then states "It would be wrong giving Ethanol the entire blame for increasing food prices in the world". Mr. Vasterteg even promotes Ethanol as a good crop for hungry people in the third world! I think they would like to grow food first, dear collegue...

I am amazed that basic physics and math don't work with some people. Even one of the most positive Ethanol enthusiasts - Sekab CEO in Sweden - clearly states that Ethanol never can replace fossile fuels as primary source for transportation. A vast number of research done by independent institutes clearly states that production of Ethanol will no matter how much better the technology gets still only provide a fraction of the world wide need for inefficient cars.

The only way out of the car is promoting something better than the car. I don't know if Podcar technology is the best answer, but it will use ZERO fossil fuel and/or any other bio fuel. It seems to be safer, faster, more convienient and much more energy efficient than enything else around. To argue against evaulation of this technology makes me suspicious that Sekab and other supporting organisations are taken over by the car industry. Let's hope that I'm wrong.

Monday, April 21, 2008

Better and Worse

As days go by, things get better and worse. The good news - more and more people, especially decisionmakers, start to understand the unreasonable price on all levels for burning fossile fuel in an extremly inefficient transportation system. Also, the rate of americans using bikes and public transit is steadily increasing. The bad news comes from IPCC again - is does not really matter for the next hundred of years what we do now in terms of producing CO2. We could all be driving electric cars or switch to Podcars, light rail and trains - it matters only for another 100 years after that. The only way to have a short term impact is to take special carbon consumption measures, like planting trees and possibly other technologies like sending the CO2 back below sea level.

I am born optimist and I am confident that humanity will fix the mess we created. However, we have seen nothing yet in terms of climate change and peak everything - oil, fish, food, crop etc.

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Transportation predictions for 2008

(This will be interesting reading in December)

So, how do I predict the year of 2008 to be for sustainable transportation?

Several initiatives from the car industry will most likely have a more profound effect. The new versions of hybrids and even electric cars (like the electric Smart Fortwo) will gain momemtum as oil prices soars to new heights. It is probably also a question of survival for car manufacturers outside China and India - it will be hard to compete with $2000 cars even if they are poorly designed and uncomfortable. The best option to beat this competition is spelled design and sustainability.

In LA there is probably the only light rail in the world that is there for fun. No one rides it to actually go anywhere (except back to where they came from). For personal transportation I find it hard to see that 2008 will be a better year for light rail than any of the previous ten. However, it seems like a lot of people want to have it, but very few actually want to ride it. Therefore I think the only success light rail can have 2008 is if it is implemented in the LA way, as a very short, preferably free ride system in pedestrian areas.

One of the most peculiar things about USA and rail is the total abscence of high speed trains. Many people actually travel between cities, often the core of cities - and yet there is almost never a reasonably fast rail link between them. Can the swedish GTS concept (www.sika-institute.se) maybe be a new approach to attract passengers from cars to rail? GTS is much faster, cheaper and environmentally adaptable than rail, and can also service both the city core and outskirts. My prediction is that will be at least two studies in USA looking into this in 2008.

I hope that the bike will have an upswing in 2008. Many places in USA have much better climate than europe, but still a lot of people don't bike. I am sure this has a lot to do with two things - gas prices and anxiety for children. It seems to be socially unacceptable in many places for parents NOT to drive them to the school - "if they bike they can get hurt!". This is a pretty self fulfilling prophecy, because if not all those parents took their car around schools - often after leaving the child driving much faster - it would not be so dangerous...

In Sweden there is a high degree of development energy put into new trucks and buses with hybrid drive. That initiative coupled with possibility of PRT-like routes (off line stations), close intervals and dedicated lanes could be a new possibility also for USA, maybe in less dense areas.

High up on my personal wishlist is to see a PRT test track in USA soon again. The Podcar (PRT) technology is very interesting, and theoretically a very exctiting option for personal transportation. It is now high time for action to see if Podcars can deliver what they promise. In Europe several systems will be up and running soon, but I think it is very important to have a few in USA also. I will predict that there be at least one system in USA in 2008.

I hope for an interesting 2008 for sustainable transportation, and both open minded and critical thinking of old and new technologies.