Transportation predictions for 2008

(This will be interesting reading in December)

So, how do I predict the year of 2008 to be for sustainable transportation?

Several initiatives from the car industry will most likely have a more profound effect. The new versions of hybrids and even electric cars (like the electric Smart Fortwo) will gain momemtum as oil prices soars to new heights. It is probably also a question of survival for car manufacturers outside China and India - it will be hard to compete with $2000 cars even if they are poorly designed and uncomfortable. The best option to beat this competition is spelled design and sustainability.

In LA there is probably the only light rail in the world that is there for fun. No one rides it to actually go anywhere (except back to where they came from). For personal transportation I find it hard to see that 2008 will be a better year for light rail than any of the previous ten. However, it seems like a lot of people want to have it, but very few actually want to ride it. Therefore I think the only success light rail can have 2008 is if it is implemented in the LA way, as a very short, preferably free ride system in pedestrian areas.

One of the most peculiar things about USA and rail is the total abscence of high speed trains. Many people actually travel between cities, often the core of cities - and yet there is almost never a reasonably fast rail link between them. Can the swedish GTS concept (www.sika-institute.se) maybe be a new approach to attract passengers from cars to rail? GTS is much faster, cheaper and environmentally adaptable than rail, and can also service both the city core and outskirts. My prediction is that will be at least two studies in USA looking into this in 2008.

I hope that the bike will have an upswing in 2008. Many places in USA have much better climate than europe, but still a lot of people don't bike. I am sure this has a lot to do with two things - gas prices and anxiety for children. It seems to be socially unacceptable in many places for parents NOT to drive them to the school - "if they bike they can get hurt!". This is a pretty self fulfilling prophecy, because if not all those parents took their car around schools - often after leaving the child driving much faster - it would not be so dangerous...

In Sweden there is a high degree of development energy put into new trucks and buses with hybrid drive. That initiative coupled with possibility of PRT-like routes (off line stations), close intervals and dedicated lanes could be a new possibility also for USA, maybe in less dense areas.

High up on my personal wishlist is to see a PRT test track in USA soon again. The Podcar (PRT) technology is very interesting, and theoretically a very exctiting option for personal transportation. It is now high time for action to see if Podcars can deliver what they promise. In Europe several systems will be up and running soon, but I think it is very important to have a few in USA also. I will predict that there be at least one system in USA in 2008.

I hope for an interesting 2008 for sustainable transportation, and both open minded and critical thinking of old and new technologies.